White cardboard prices slashed! This paper has dropped over $2,000 per tonne?

CCTV investigation, cultural paper fell more than 2000 yuan per tonne


As an important upstream production materials, the last six months, the price of pulp can be described as ups and downs, in late August, the price of pulp than in mid-August fell by 1.2%, which has an impact on paper companies?


The reporter visited a number of paper mills and found that, at present, the ex-factory price of cultural paper used for writing and printing is about 5,100-5,300 yuan per tonne. This price has fallen more than 2,000 yuan from the peak of more than 7,000 yuan per tonne in May. Meanwhile, the prices of wood pulp raw materials such as broadleaf pulp and coniferous pulp have also retreated in the last two months.


Li Zonghui, assistant general manager of CMT Paper Galaxy Co., Ltd: Coniferous pulp in the price of more than 7,000 yuan / tonne above the price, retraced about 1,000 yuan, and is now stable at more than 6,000 yuan / tonne above. Broadleaf pulp prices in the high 6000 yuan / tonne, to 4600 / tonne, 4700 yuan / tonne price.


Data show that in 2020, the country's total imports of wood pulp reached 30.64 million tonnes, accounting for 72.8% of the total consumption of wood pulp. Industry analysis, at present, the overall domestic demand for paper is still stable, the price of pulp is expected to stabilise.


White cardboard prices slashed

January 1, 2021 onwards, the "waste ban" is fully implemented, further promoting the "paper instead of plastic", biodegradable paper cups, paper bowls, lunch boxes and other paper products demand growth.

The dividends of the national policy has pushed up the price trend of white cardboard. The Opinions on Further Strengthening the Control of Plastic Pollution clearly stipulates that the use of non-degradable plastic bags will be fully restricted in many parts of China by the end of 2020. After the implementation of the policy, "paper instead of plastic," the main product of white cardboard has become a hot commodity, the market demand exceeds supply, the price performance is exceptionally conspicuous. The industry conservatively estimated that each year will release about 1 to 3 million tonnes of new paper packaging demand, of which more than 90% is the demand for white cardboard.

White card is currently applied in the social card (pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, 3C digital and other packaging boxes) accounted for 60%, 26% of the cigarette card, food card 14%. With the year-on-year growth in sales of pharmaceuticals, food, 3C products, cosmetics, as the mainstay of commodity packaging, white cardboard of better quality and toughness, in the trend of consumer upgrading gradually replace the low-end whiteboard paper, widely used in mass consumer goods. White cardboard has become one of the popular alternative materials in the fields of meal boxes used for catering takeaways and paper bags in contact with food, which are common in life.


In this context, on January 25, 2021, the leading enterprises in the domestic paper industry released a price increase culminating in the announcement of a continuous increase of 500 yuan / tonne in February to March, a new wave of price increases to come. At this time, the white cardboard prices rose to 7500 yuan / tonne. in March, the white cardboard market once again announced a price increase, prices soared all the way up 1000 yuan / tonne. At this point, the white cardboard prices break through the historical record, officially entered the era of 10,000 yuan, and since then in April-May white cardboard prices remain high.

The first half of 2021 white cardboard trend showed an inverted U-shaped trend, since the second quarter, the paper industry into the traditional off-season, white cardboard rose too fast in the early part of the speed, downstream customers soaring procurement costs, the formation of a more pronounced wait-and-see and resistance to the market psychology. Downstream medium and large printing houses began to take the initiative to cut orders or choose to purchase cheaper raw materials. The cold operation of the previous period prompted the current downstream manufacturers to stock up, overdrawing market demand in advance.

At the same time, with the global public health events repeatedly, overseas epidemic input, commodity supply and price stabilisation policy and other multiple factors, the industry supply and demand contradictions, the second half of the white cardboard prices basically show a downward trend.

-Short-term tight supply and demand and wood pulp prices support, white cardboard prices are expected to remain high;

-Long-term release of a large number of production capacity or will pull the price back to the low level.

The beginning of the year policy dividend release led to a number of paper industry in the first half of the listed leading companies in the performance of substantial growth. mid-April, white cardboard prices began to fall slowly, the end of May began to enter a rapid downward pattern until the end of July the market downtrend slowed down. in August the market market price of the mainstream brand of white cardboard for 6110 yuan / tonne or so, and the peak of the 10,000 yuan / tonne price drop of 38%, nearly "cut".


After the market with the arrival of the golden nine and silver ten of the traditional peak season, the domestic epidemic has been effectively controlled, the marginal impact factors have a clear trend of weakening, the domestic demand for white cardboard there may be a rebound, the demand side can get a small relief.

But the global new crown epidemic is still showing repeated outbreaks of the situation, the problem of shipping containers has not yet been alleviated, prices, cycles and other hard problems of shipping still hinder exports, relying on foreign exports of orders by the impact of the more serious. Market potential risks still exist, with the decline in commodity prices such as pulp, white cardboard is expected to rise in the short term is unlikely, in the golden nine and silver ten peak season in white cardboard trend is not prosperous probability.




Source: CCTV Finance, Cai Mu official network, etc.